Jessica Pegula vs Ajla Tomljanovic · Match odds & ELO prediction
Austin • Hard • Mar 1, 2025 • 7:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 93% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 70% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Ajla Tomljanovic
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,549 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,549 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.0 | 45% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 49% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.1 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Ajla Tomljanovic are set to meet at the Austin on March 1, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 37–14 record on hard courts in 2025, while Tomljanovic has posted a 14–16 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–0 over Tomljanovic, including a win in their most recent meeting.