Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 22, 2026 • 3:05 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Jelena Ostapenko
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jelena Ostapenko
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,495 points across 45 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,495 points across 45 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 29% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.4 | 25% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 32% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jasmine Paolini
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,182 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,182 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jelena Ostapenko and Jasmine Paolini are set to meet at the Miami on March 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Ostapenko enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Paolini has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paolini entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Ostapenko leads 3–1 over Paolini, including a win in their most recent meeting.