Jay Clarke vs Federico Arnaboldi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Francavilla • Clay • May 4, 2026 • 3:40 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jay Clarke
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jay Clarke
36% · 4–7 on hard
44% · 4–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,691 points across 11 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,691 points across 11 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.6 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.8 | 73% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.8 | 17% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Federico Arnaboldi
46% · 6–7 on hard
59% · 10–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~859 points across 6 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~859 points across 6 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 42% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.7 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jay Clarke and Federico Arnaboldi are set to meet at the Francavilla on May 4, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Clarke enters with a 4–5 record on clay courts in 2026, while Arnaboldi has posted a 10–7 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Clarke entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Clarke leads 1–0 over Arnaboldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.