Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 9, 2026 • 11:10 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Elise Mertens
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jasmine Paolini
53% · 8–7 on hard
33% · 1–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,463 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,463 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 61% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 83% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.5 | 61% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elise Mertens
65% · 11–6 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.2 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 42% | 28% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jasmine Paolini and Elise Mertens are set to meet at the Rome on May 9, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Paolini enters with a 1–2 record on clay courts in 2026, while Mertens has posted a 2–2 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Mertens, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Mertens leads 3–0 over Paolini, including a win in their most recent meeting.