Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 30, 2025 • 5:20 PM
Final score
3 - 1
Winner Jannik Sinner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,724 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,724 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.0 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 76% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Denis Shapovalov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,789 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,789 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.0 | 37% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.0 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.7 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov are set to meet at the US Open on August 30, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sinner enters with a 39–3 record on hard courts in 2025, while Shapovalov has posted a 23–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 1–0 over Shapovalov, including a win in their most recent meeting.