Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 16, 2026 • 2:05 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Jannik Sinner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
66%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,170 points across 83 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,170 points across 83 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.0 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 76% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.4 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev are set to meet at the Rome on May 16, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sinner enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Medvedev has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 9–1 over Medvedev, including a win in their most recent meeting.