Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 28, 2025 • 6:15 PM
Final score
3 - 0
Winner Jannik Sinner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
66%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,170 points across 83 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,170 points across 83 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.0 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexei Popyrin
18% · 2–9 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,785 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,785 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 54% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.1 | 38% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Alexei Popyrin are set to meet at the US Open on August 28, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sinner enters with a 39–3 record on hard courts in 2025, while Popyrin has posted a 7–15 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 3–0 over Popyrin, including a win in their most recent meeting.