Jan-Lennard Struff vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
Wimbledon • Grass • Jul 4, 2025 • 4:15 PM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jan-Lennard Struff
60% · 3–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,670 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,670 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 67% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.9 | 27% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.6 | 21% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 51% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 84% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jan-Lennard Struff and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the Wimbledon on July 4, 2025 in a grass-court singles match. Struff enters with a 3–3 record on grass courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 11–1 mark on grass courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 4–0 over Struff, including a win in their most recent meeting.