Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 20, 2026 • 2:10 AM
Final score
3 - 2
Winner Jakub Mensik
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jakub Mensik
33% · 1–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,043 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,043 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.1 | 87% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 57% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.9 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 58% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
50% · 2–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,997 points across 32 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,997 points across 32 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 38% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 61% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jakub Mensik and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 20, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Mensik enters with a 1–2 record on hard courts in 2026, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 2–2 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Mensik entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Mensik leads 3–0 over Carreno-Busta, including a win in their most recent meeting.