Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 30, 2025 • 2:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jack Draper
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jack Draper
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,913 points across 35 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,913 points across 35 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 90% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.1 | 49% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 65% | 82% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 73% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.4 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jack Draper and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Madrid on April 30, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Draper enters with a 12–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Paul has posted a 12–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Draper, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Draper leads 4–2 over Paul, including a win in their most recent meeting.