Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Finals - Riyadh • Hard • Nov 3, 2025 • 2:15 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Elena Rybakina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Iga Swiatek
60% · 3–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,749 points across 86 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,749 points across 86 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.7 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.3 | 98% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.6 | 76% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 80% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.5 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.2 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina are set to meet at the Finals - Riyadh on November 3, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Swiatek enters with a 41–12 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rybakina has posted a 42–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Rybakina, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Swiatek leads 7–3 over Rybakina.