Hubert Hurkacz vs Stan Wawrinka · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP United Cup • Hard • Jan 11, 2026 • 9:15 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Hubert Hurkacz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Hubert Hurkacz
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,869 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,869 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.9 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.4 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.2 | 67% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Stan Wawrinka
20% · 1–4 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,213 points across 19 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,213 points across 19 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.3 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -7.1 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 21% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Hubert Hurkacz and Stan Wawrinka are set to meet at the ATP United Cup on January 11, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Hurkacz enters with a 4–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Wawrinka has posted a 1–4 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Wawrinka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Hurkacz leads 2–0 over Wawrinka, including a win in their most recent meeting.