Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cagliari • Clay • May 3, 2026 • 1:15 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Hubert Hurkacz
38% · 5–8 on hard
70% · 7–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,532 points across 35 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,532 points across 35 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.0 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.5 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.6 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 41% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Arnaldi are set to meet at the Cagliari on May 3, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Hurkacz enters with a 7–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Arnaldi has posted a 6–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Arnaldi entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Arnaldi leads 1–0 over Hurkacz, including a win in their most recent meeting.