Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez · Match odds & ELO prediction
Barcelona • Clay • Apr 16, 2025 • 10:40 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Holger Rune
Key insights
Player performance profile
Holger Rune
64% · 23–13 on hard
64% · 9–5 on clay
50% · 2–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,805 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,805 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 70% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 66% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 40% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.9 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Holger Rune and Sebastian Baez are set to meet at the Barcelona on April 16, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Rune enters with a 9–5 record on clay courts in 2025, while Baez has posted a 17–14 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Rune entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rune leads 3–2 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.