Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 12, 2025 • 8:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Francisco Cerundolo
Key insights
Player performance profile
Francisco Cerundolo
59% · 16–11 on hard
66% · 21–11 on clay
0% · 0–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,796 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,796 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 28% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.5 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.0 | 49% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,942 points across 94 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,942 points across 94 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.7 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 39% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Francisco Cerundolo and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 12, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Cerundolo enters with a 16–11 record on hard courts in 2025, while Minaur has posted a 41–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Minaur entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Minaur leads 2–1 over Cerundolo, including a win in their most recent meeting.