Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito Nishioka · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 25, 2025 • 7:20 PM
Final score
3 - 0
Winner Frances Tiafoe
Key insights
Player performance profile
Frances Tiafoe
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,041 points across 53 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,041 points across 53 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 62% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Yoshihito Nishioka
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,918 points across 27 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,918 points across 27 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 34% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.6 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.4 | 70% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 74% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Frances Tiafoe and Yoshihito Nishioka are set to meet at the US Open on August 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Tiafoe enters with a 14–12 record on hard courts in 2025, while Nishioka has posted a 24–15 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Tiafoe leads 3–2 over Nishioka, including a win in their most recent meeting.