Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 9, 2026 • 4:15 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Frances Tiafoe
Key insights
Player performance profile
Frances Tiafoe
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,188 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,188 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 57% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.9 | 57% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Ignacio Buse
60% · 3–2 on hard
50% · 8–8 on clay
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,227 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,227 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 41% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.8 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 29% | 9% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Frances Tiafoe and Ignacio Buse are set to meet at the Rome on May 9, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Tiafoe enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Buse has posted a 8–8 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Tiafoe, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Tiafoe leads 1–0 over Buse, including a win in their most recent meeting.