Frances Tiafoe vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 23, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Frances Tiafoe
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,074 points across 47 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,074 points across 47 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,816 points across 80 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,816 points across 80 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 98% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.3 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 34% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Frances Tiafoe and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 23, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Tiafoe enters with a 1–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Minaur has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.