Elise Mertens vs McCartney Kessler · Match odds & ELO prediction
Beijing • Hard • Sep 26, 2025 • 9:35 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner McCartney Kessler
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elise Mertens
65% · 11–6 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.2 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 42% | 28% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
McCartney Kessler
50% · 7–7 on hard
80% · 4–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,492 points across 61 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,492 points across 61 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 57% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elise Mertens and McCartney Kessler are set to meet at the Beijing on September 26, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Mertens enters with a 22–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Kessler has posted a 27–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Mertens, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Kessler leads 2–0 over Mertens, including a win in their most recent meeting.