Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 26, 2026 • 9:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elise Mertens
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,217 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,217 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.1 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.6 | 43% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 42% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Karolina Pliskova
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~408 points across 3 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~408 points across 3 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elise Mertens and Karolina Pliskova are set to meet at the Madrid on April 26, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Mertens enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Pliskova has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Mertens entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Mertens leads 1–0 over Pliskova, including a win in their most recent meeting.