Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 29, 2025 • 6:15 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Cristina Bucsa
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elise Mertens
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,620 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,620 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 54% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.6 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cristina Bucsa
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,055 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,055 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 48% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.5 | 46% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 41% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elise Mertens and Cristina Bucsa are set to meet at the US Open on August 29, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Mertens enters with a 22–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Bucsa has posted a 28–22 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Bucsa entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Mertens leads 3–2 over Bucsa, including a win in their most recent meeting.