Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 11, 2025 • 9:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Elina Svitolina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elina Svitolina
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,383 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,383 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 87% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.3 | 72% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 75% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elina Svitolina and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the WTA Indian Wells on March 11, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Svitolina enters with a 14–9 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Pegula, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–3 over Svitolina, including a win in their most recent meeting.