Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Australian Open • Hard • Jan 26, 2026 • 5:35 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Elena Rybakina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,206 points across 98 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,206 points across 98 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.4 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.6 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elise Mertens
65% · 11–6 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 56% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.2 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 42% | 25% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens are set to meet at the WTA Australian Open on January 26, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Rybakina enters with a 2–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Mertens has posted a 11–6 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Rybakina entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rybakina leads 7–0 over Mertens, including a win in their most recent meeting.