Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 8, 2026 • 6:00 PM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Denis Shapovalov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,510 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,510 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 30% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.9 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,724 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,724 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.0 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 76% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Denis Shapovalov and Jannik Sinner are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 8, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Shapovalov enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Sinner has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 1–0 over Shapovalov, including a win in their most recent meeting.