David Goffin vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 22, 2025 • 12:55 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner David Goffin
Key insights
Player performance profile
David Goffin
36% · 12–21 on hard
50% · 4–4 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
42%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,698 points across 37 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,698 points across 37 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.7 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.5 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 77% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
David Goffin and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the Miami on March 22, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Goffin enters with a 12–21 record on hard courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 38–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.