Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 28, 2026 • 7:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Flavio Cobolli
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 76% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.4 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Flavio Cobolli
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,734 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,734 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 27% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.8 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 61% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Flavio Cobolli are set to meet at the Madrid on April 28, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Medvedev enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Cobolli has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Cobolli, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Medvedev leads 2–1 over Cobolli.