Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 23, 2026 • 12:40 AM
Final score
3 - 2
Winner Daniil Medvedev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 76% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.4 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Fabian Marozsan
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,351 points across 65 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,351 points across 65 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 53% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.0 | 45% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Fabian Marozsan are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 23, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Medvedev enters with a 5–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Marozsan has posted a 0–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Medvedev entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Medvedev leads 4–0 over Marozsan, including a win in their most recent meeting.