Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Vilius Gaubas · Match odds & ELO prediction
Lisbon • Clay • Sep 26, 2025 • 2:00 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Vilius Gaubas
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniel Merida Aguilar
63% · 15–9 on hard
69% · 35–16 on clay
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,265 points across 8 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,265 points across 8 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.0 | 13% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 47% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.3 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Vilius Gaubas
33% · 3–6 on hard
65% · 36–19 on clay
50% · 1–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,860 points across 23 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,860 points across 23 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.9 | 6% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 78% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 88% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniel Merida Aguilar and Vilius Gaubas are set to meet at the Lisbon on September 26, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Aguilar enters with a 35–16 record on clay courts in 2025, while Gaubas has posted a 36–19 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Gaubas, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Gaubas leads 4–1 over Aguilar, including a win in their most recent meeting.