Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilic · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 22, 2026 • 5:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Denis Shapovalov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,294 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,294 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 32% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 81% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.2 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 78% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Marin Cilic
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,807 points across 25 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,807 points across 25 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 58% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 48% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Denis Shapovalov and Marin Cilic are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Shapovalov enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Cilic has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Cilic entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Cilic leads 1–0 over Shapovalov, including a win in their most recent meeting.