Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Finals - Riyadh • Hard • Nov 2, 2025 • 3:55 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Coco Gauff
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,833 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,833 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 70% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.0 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.5 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 78% | 92% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 93% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 70% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Finals - Riyadh on November 2, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Gauff enters with a 30–11 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Gauff entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 6–3 over Gauff, including a win in their most recent meeting.