Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 22, 2026 • 7:05 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Sebastian Korda
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Korda
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,004 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,004 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.4 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.6 | 78% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Korda are set to meet at the Miami on March 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Korda has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 4–2 over Korda.