Carlos Alcaraz vs Marin Cilic · Match odds & ELO prediction
Doha • Hard • Feb 17, 2025 • 3:35 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Marin Cilic
57% · 8–6 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,140 points across 34 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,140 points across 34 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 69% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.0 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -7.2 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 25% | 5% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Marin Cilic are set to meet at the Doha on February 17, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with a 38–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Cilic has posted a 9–9 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 4–0 over Cilic, including a win in their most recent meeting.