Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 16, 2025 • 1:45 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Lorenzo Musetti
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,672 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,672 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 82% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.0 | 47% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 81% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti are set to meet at the Rome on May 16, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with a 22–1 record on clay courts in 2025, while Musetti has posted a 19–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–1 over Musetti, including a win in their most recent meeting.