Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner · Match odds & ELO prediction
Monte Carlo • Clay • Apr 12, 2026 • 1:10 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jannik Sinner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,289 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,289 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.0 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are set to meet at the Monte Carlo on April 12, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Sinner has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 5 wins.