Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime · Match odds & ELO prediction
Finals - Turin • Hard • Nov 15, 2025 • 7:45 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 84% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,193 points across 72 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,193 points across 72 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.0 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 56% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.7 | 57% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 80% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime are set to meet at the Finals - Turin on November 15, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with a 38–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Auger-Aliassime has posted a 43–16 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 5–2 over Auger-Aliassime, including a win in their most recent meeting.