Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 23, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 84% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Corentin Moutet
58% · 22–16 on hard
47% · 8–9 on clay
69% · 9–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,808 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,808 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 88% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.5 | 70% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Corentin Moutet are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 23, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Moutet has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. This will be the first meeting between Alcaraz and Moutet at the professional level.