Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Valencia • Clay • May 14, 2026 • 2:50 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Key insights
Player performance profile
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
29% · 2–5 on hard
67% · 12–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,817 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,817 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.3 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 61% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.6 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Berrettini
60% · 3–2 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,666 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,666 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.5 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 51% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Matteo Berrettini are set to meet at the Valencia on May 14, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Carabelli enters with a 12–6 record on clay courts in 2026, while Berrettini has posted a 7–7 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Carabelli entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Carabelli leads 1–0 over Berrettini, including a win in their most recent meeting.