Bernard Tomic vs Nicolas Mejia · Match odds & ELO prediction
Lexington • Hard • Jul 30, 2025 • 2:15 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Bernard Tomic
Key insights
Player performance profile
Bernard Tomic
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,449 points across 17 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,449 points across 17 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.5 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.7 | 27% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 17% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nicolas Mejia
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~736 points across 7 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~736 points across 7 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.8 | 71% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.3 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Bernard Tomic and Nicolas Mejia are set to meet at the Lexington on July 30, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Tomic enters with a 32–25 record on hard courts in 2025, while Mejia has posted a 23–25 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Tomic entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Tomic leads 4–0 over Mejia, including a win in their most recent meeting.