Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia Kenin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 11, 2025 • 9:05 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.9 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sofia Kenin
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,018 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,018 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.1 | 78% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.1 | 67% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin are set to meet at the Rome on May 11, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Kenin has posted a 9–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Kenin entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.