Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia Kenin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 11, 2025 • 9:05 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sofia Kenin
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,312 points across 58 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,312 points across 58 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 78% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.8 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 67% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 56% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin are set to meet at the Rome on May 11, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Kenin has posted a 9–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Kenin entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.