Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane Stephens · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Australian Open • Hard • Jan 12, 2025 • 8:15 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sloane Stephens
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,506 points across 10 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,506 points across 10 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 25% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.8 | 65% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 52% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Sloane Stephens are set to meet at the WTA Australian Open on January 12, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Stephens has posted a 0–6 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Stephens entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 4–0 over Stephens, including a win in their most recent meeting.