Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 23, 2026 • 9:15 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.7 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 83% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Qinwen Zheng
62% · 8–5 on hard
71% · 10–4 on clay
50% · 2–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,736 points across 34 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,736 points across 34 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 57% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.3 | 21% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 34% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng are set to meet at the Miami on March 23, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 5–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Zheng has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 8–1 over Zheng, including a win in their most recent meeting.