Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Australian Open • Hard • Jan 25, 2025 • 8:45 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Madison Keys
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.7 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 83% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Madison Keys
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,164 points across 61 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,164 points across 61 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 91% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.2 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 91% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys are set to meet at the WTA Australian Open on January 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Keys has posted a 24–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 5–2 over Keys, including a win in their most recent meeting.