Aryna Sabalenka vs L. Samsonova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Wuhan • Hard • Oct 9, 2025 • 5:35 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.7 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 83% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
L. Samsonova
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,648 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,648 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.9 | 67% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 100% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 83% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and L. Samsonova are set to meet at the Wuhan on October 9, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Samsonova has posted a 15–15 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 3–0 over Samsonova, including a win in their most recent meeting.