Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Brisbane • Hard • Jan 10, 2026 • 1:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.9 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Karolina Muchova
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,402 points across 42 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,402 points across 42 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 90% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 76% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova are set to meet at the WTA Brisbane on January 10, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 5–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Muchova has posted a 3–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Muchova entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Muchova leads 3–2 over Sabalenka.