Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Sep 4, 2025 • 11:20 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.9 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the US Open on September 4, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 7–2 over Pegula, including a win in their most recent meeting.