Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 27, 2025 • 9:10 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elise Mertens
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,620 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,620 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 54% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.6 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens are set to meet at the Madrid on April 27, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Mertens has posted a 6–5 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 7–0 over Mertens, including a win in their most recent meeting.