Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina · Match odds & ELO prediction
French Open • Clay • May 30, 2026 • 12:35 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.5 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Daria Kasatkina
44% · 4–5 on hard
71% · 5–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,499 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,499 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.2 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.1 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.6 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Daria Kasatkina are set to meet at the French Open on May 30, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 3–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Kasatkina has posted a 5–2 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 5–2 over Kasatkina, including a win in their most recent meeting.