Aryna Sabalenka vs Danielle Collins · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 24, 2025 • 6:05 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.7 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 83% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Danielle Collins
43% · 6–8 on hard
64% · 7–4 on clay
50% · 2–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,971 points across 28 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,971 points across 28 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 79% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 57% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 31% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Collins are set to meet at the Miami on March 24, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Collins has posted a 6–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 5–0 over Collins, including a win in their most recent meeting.