Arthur Rinderknech vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 31, 2025 • 5:45 PM
Final score
0 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Arthur Rinderknech
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,812 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,812 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 81% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.9 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.9 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 42% | 29% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Arthur Rinderknech and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the US Open on August 31, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Rinderknech enters with a 16–19 record on hard courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 38–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 5–0 over Rinderknech, including a win in their most recent meeting.