Ariana Geerlings Martinez vs Renata Zarazua · Match odds & ELO prediction
W100 Madrid • Clay • Apr 16, 2025 • 8:15 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Renata Zarazua
Key insights
Player performance profile
Ariana Geerlings Martinez
25% · 1–3 on hard
67% · 30–15 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
8 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~268 points across 2 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~268 points across 2 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 35% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 75% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.1 | 66% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Renata Zarazua
48% · 10–11 on hard
70% · 7–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,548 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,548 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 30% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 52% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.7 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 34% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Ariana Geerlings Martinez and Renata Zarazua are set to meet at the W100 Madrid on April 16, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Martinez enters with a 30–15 record on clay courts in 2025, while Zarazua has posted a 9–9 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Zarazua, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Zarazua leads 1–0 over Martinez, including a win in their most recent meeting.